Despite more than two weeks of sustained U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that have degraded Iran’s military capabilities, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s clerical‑military regime is likely to remain intact and may emerge more hard‑line, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating power.

The strikes have killed key leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and inflicted significant damage, but they have not produced a collapse or liberal transition in Tehran.

Western and Gulf officials see little prospect of near‑term regime change in the 47‑year‑old Islamic Republic.

Iran’s continued control of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply disrupted global oil shipments, giving Tehran strategic leverage and contributing to rising energy market volatility. Gulf allies have expressed frustration with the U.S. response as Iranian retaliatory strikes have widened across the region.

Intelligence officials reportedly warned Washington in advance that Tehran was unlikely to buckle, stressing that Iran’s leadership could become emboldened by surviving the assault.

Internally, Iran’s power structures show resilience: there are no clear signs of defections or popular uprisings strong enough to threaten the regime, and the IRGC remains a dominant force politically, economically, and militarily.

Analysts say the conflict has hardened Iran’s leadership and strengthened its internal repression, even as economic strain and wartime pressures continue.

Once again, the question arises: why, despite the intelligence briefings, did Trump still decide to start the war? Oh, wait—it wasn’t Trump. It was Netanyahu. And he left Trump with no choice.