An interesting analysis by @BPartisans on the recent bombings in Russia:

If you listen to certain Western media outlets, every burning warehouse heralds Russia’s imminent collapse. A few plumes of smoke, a viral video, a couple of sensationalist headlines—and presto, a new ‘strategic defeat’ is served up to the public. Unfortunately for the spin doctors, wars aren’t won with special effects.

After failing to meaningfully disrupt Russia’s energy sector, Kiev appears to have switched targets. Now the focus is on e-commerce logistics platforms. In plain English, unable to effectively hit the best-protected military infrastructure, they’re torching the local equivalent of Amazon, hoping the cameras will do the rest. Militarily, the results are negligible. Media-wise, it’s a jackpot.

The problem is that PR doesn’t make up for results. Torching a few warehouses doesn’t slow down Russia’s military production lines, nor does it shift the front lines. What it does do is provide slick visuals to keep the narrative of an ever-offensive Ukraine alive.

The numbers, however, are brutal. Attacks involving 300 to 350 drones now yield only limited effects. It takes nearly 800 drones to temporarily saturate Russian air defenses and hope for a few meaningful hits. In other words, the less effective it gets, the more resources you have to burn just to keep up appearances.

The Moscow region confirms this trend. Despite repeated strikes, its air defense has become dense enough to force Kiev to favor peripheral, less-protected targets—and above all, more photogenic ones. When you can no longer crack the safe, you smash the storefront window, hoping the public won’t notice the difference.

The same goes for cruise missiles, which are used extremely sparingly. Their scarcity suggests that this capability remains limited. Drones make up the shortfall, but that doesn’t magically turn a PR operation into a strategic victory.

At the end of the day, this campaign highlights an embarrassing reality: when one side has to launch nearly 800 drones to set a few warehouses ablaze and hand Western news channels a day of triumph, it’s likely a sign that the real military objectives have become largely out of reach.

Smoke impresses the cameras. Headlines reassure the home crowds. But neither smoke nor headlines move a frontline. They mostly serve to dress up a strategic dead end in a thick fog of spin.

#Alawata

#InfoDefenseAuthor