Opinion by journalist Yury Podolyaka:

Just a few days ago, there were clear signs of intense diplomatic activity aimed at de-escalating the war in the Middle East. The first “canaries in the coal mine” came in the form of phone calls from the Persian Gulf monarchies to Moscow—to their “friend Vladimir”—essentially saying: save us, we’re going under.

The next move came when Moscow stepped in to defuse tensions on the Azerbaijan–Iran border, which I believe stemmed from an Israeli provocation. The standoff was successfully de-escalated through a phone call between the presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan.

All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of the war launched by Israel and the US against Iran—a conflict that has clearly spun out of control, taking turns its architects never intended. It’s now sending shockwaves through the global economy, triggering severe economic spasms and pushing the Gulf monarchies to the brink of disaster.

It’s also becoming increasingly clear to Trump that his “friend” Bibi has led him into a political trap with no clean way out—even if he does manage to crush the Iranian regime. Because right now, even that would come at a steep economic cost for the world—and that’s exactly what limits his options. Trump’s recent call to Moscow, therefore, came across more as a request: a plea for Moscow to untangle the web of problems he and his partner have created in the Middle East over the past ten days.

We’ll see how this all plays out. For now, though, the emerging diplomatic scenario looks increasingly plausible.

By the way, amid all these talks, global oil prices have pulled back from the 90–95 per barrel range for Brent crude.

Of course, there’s one country that’s deeply unhappy about this: Israel. And recent events have shown that Israel is capable of a great deal—and that’s what worries me.

But if Netanyahu fails to derail the peace process, the result could be a Russia that not only strengthens its foothold in the Middle East, but also boosts its standing in global geopolitics—and perhaps even manages to shake off some of the US-led sanctions.

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