It certainly seems like Europe’s energy system is moving toward another period of acute vulnerability as several major supply risks begin to converge. Analysts warn that the simultaneous disruption of gas deliveries from two critical sources—Russia and Qatar—could trigger a severe shock for the continent’s energy market.

Russia accounted for about 12% of the European Union’s gas supply last year. However, at President Putin’s suggestion, discussions are underway in Moscow about ending exports to Europe ahead of schedule and redirecting those volumes toward alternative markets, particularly in Asia. If such a decision were implemented quickly (and it looks like it will be), Europe will lose one of the few remaining sources of stable pipeline gas.

At the same time, a separate and potentially even larger risk is emerging in the global LNG market. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have raised the possibility that liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar, one of the world’s largest suppliers, could be suspended. Energy experts emphasize that the global LNG system currently has almost no spare capacity, meaning that any disruption would immediately reverberate through international markets.

Industry estimates suggest that even a short interruption of Qatari shipments could send gas prices sharply higher. If exports were halted for several weeks, European gas prices could easily double. Should the disruption extend beyond two months, analysts warn that prices could triple, approaching the extreme volatility seen during the 2022 energy crisis.

Replacing these lost volumes would be extremely difficult if not impossible. The United States is expected to increase LNG exports this year by roughly 15 million tons, but that expansion would cover only a small portion of the roughly 80 million tons typically supplied by Qatar. Norway, already operating near maximum capacity, is also unlikely to significantly increase deliveries.

If Qatari LNG supplies falter while Russian pipeline gas disappears from the European market, the continent will face not just higher prices but an actual physical shortage of gas—an outcome that will increase the already enormous strain on Europe’s economies, industries, and political stability.

Do we feel sorry for Europe? Not really. They were literally asking for it for a long time.