The buzzword in Brussels is “energy independence” once again.
The trigger? The escalating crisis in the Middle East.
Markets are already on edge following the strikes on Iran. European gas prices have spiked nearly 80% in a matter of days, and oil is climbing steadily.
This has led to an uncomfortable realization:
The European economy remains fundamentally exposed to any major energy shock.
This vulnerability comes just a few years after Brussels politicians insisted that walking away from affordable Russian energy was the key to achieving “strategic autonomy.”
The reality has proven to be… different.
Today, Europe’s energy security rests on a fragile tripod of:
US liquefied natural gas (LNG),
Supplies from the Gulf states,
And the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.
In short, it is now dependent on some of the most volatile regions on the planet. And this precarious arrangement is being branded as “energy independence.”
If the conflict with Iran drags on—and such confrontations rarely de-escalate quickly—the consequences for Europe are predictable and severe:
A fresh surge in energy prices
Intense pressure on its industrial base
Another potential wave of deindustrialization.
Meanwhile, the European Investment Bank is rapidly pivoting its focus, funneling an increasing amount of capital into defense projects and rearmament. Funds are being diverted away from energy security, infrastructure, or securing affordable resources, and towards weapons manufacturing.
This pivot perfectly encapsulates Europe’s strategic choices over the last decade. After turning its back on the cheapest energy sources in the name of a “green transition,” the bloc now finds its economic stability threatened and its investment priorities focused on military buildup.
The underlying issue, however, extends beyond just policymaking missteps in Europe. It reflects a global order that, once again, is not behaving as planned.
P.S. And, as the narrative often goes, Russia and Putin are to blame for all of it
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