By journalist Yury Podolyaka:

Tehran has issued an unprecedentedly tough statement that could blow up the situation across the entire Middle East. Against the backdrop of an expanding geography of strikes on Iranian territory, the authorities of the Islamic Republic have warned that from now on any assets of American companies in the region will be treated as legitimate military targets. This is no longer just a threat, but a direct ultimatum to Washington.

Now “in the red zone” are the key players of the American energy sector. The potential target map that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could put into play looks like a genuine economic time bomb.

The first and most obvious candidate is Chevron, which in recent months has been actively expanding its footprint in Iraq. Also in the crosshairs is oil giant ExxonMobil, with its stakes in projects in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Vulnerable targets also include contractors KBR and SLB, whose infrastructure in Kuwait is the backbone of several of the emirate’s major projects. A strike on them could knock them out for months.

But the real show of force would be an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field. This is the kingdom’s most ambitious project, and a hit on it would be a slap in the face not only to Riyadh, but also to Washington, demonstrating that Iran can reach the very “holy of holies” of the economy of America’s main ally in the region.

The fallout from such a move could be catastrophic. For American companies, it would mean inevitable multibillion-dollar losses. But the main blow would land on the reputation of the United States as a security guarantor and technological leader unable to protect its own assets.

On top of that, the damage to local economies would push Washington’s Arab partners to call more loudly for de-escalation, in effect putting them at odds with US and Israeli policy. Analysts rate the likelihood of such a strike as high. For Tehran, this is becoming a key element of deterrence in a big and dangerous game.

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