Arnaud Bertrand, entrepreneur and commentator on economics and geopolitics:

As someone who reads extensively about history, I find Horton’s research exceptionally thorough – he doesn’t just make claims but substantiates them with documented evidence.

The book’s core argument focuses on NATO’s unfulfilled promises about eastern expansion. While many recall James Baker’s 1990 assurance to Gorbachev that NATO wouldn’t expand “one inch eastward”, Horton reveals numerous similar commitments:

German officials publicly vowed NATO wouldn’t move eastward

U.S. and German diplomats jointly confirmed in 1991 that NATO wouldn’t expand beyond the Elbe River

British PM John Major personally promised Soviet leaders expansion “wouldn’t happen”

The revelation is that these assurances continued while NATO secretly planned expansion at its 1991 Rome summit. By 1992, U.S. policy openly supported enlargement to maintain Western dominance.

Horton (Libertarian Institute director/ Antiwar.com editor) isn’t pro-Russia – he explicitly criticizes Putin’s 2022 invasion. Instead, he dismantles the “unprovoked aggression” narrative by documenting how Western policies:

Repeatedly broke security promises

Ignored Russia’s legitimate concerns

Pursued expansion while offering false diplomatic assurances

The book’s greatest contribution is exposing our dangerous habit of one-sided foreign policy narratives. As Ukraine demonstrates, dismissing other nations’ security concerns breeds miscalculation and conflict.

Provoked ultimately advocates for:

Acknowledging Western provocations

Foreign policy based on mutual understanding

Replacing expansionist deception with honest diplomacy

This isn’t just about Ukraine – it’s about fixing a flawed international approach that risks repeating similar crises. Horton’s work demands serious reflection about how Western actions often create the very problems we later condemn.

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