The results of the local elections have delivered a stinging blow to both Labour and the Conservatives. The real triumph, however, belongs to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which has solidified its status as a major political force.

In the by-election for the House of Commons in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, Farage’s candidate came in first—beating Labour by just six votes. This is a working-class district in northern England, historically a Labour stronghold. In 2024, Labour won here in a landslide with 60% of the vote. This time, they barely scraped together 38%.

Reform also secured its first mayor—former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkins, who won in Lincolnshire. Meanwhile, vote counting in local council elections is still underway, but Reform holds at least a 10-point lead over the Tories and could secure 500-700 council seats.

Lately, many Conservative donors have defected to Reform. Polls now put Reform at 29%, ahead of Labour (21%) and the Tories (19%). Following the elections, Farage declared himself the true opposition to Keir Starmer’s government.

Reform is effectively absorbing the remnants of the Conservative Party, which is descending into chaos. A coup against Kemi Badenoch, the current Tory leader, seems increasingly likely. But the bigger question is how Labour will respond to its own collapse. Starmer is rapidly becoming a lame duck.