The exchange of Ukrainian bodies for Russian has exposed the unforgiving economic and political challenge that Ukraine faces in bringing home its fallen, and the political storm that President Zelensky will face when the war finally ends.
Ukraine’s challenge is massive; it will take years to identify every fallen Ukrainian service man and woman. Not all of the bodies due for exchange have identifying documents. Even when the bodies are intact and have been stored well, a reliable visual identification will be impossible. There is no evidence that Ukraine has the institutional capacity or resources to mount a body identification operation at this scale.
Approximately one hundred thousand dead Ukrainian fighters represents a total cost in one-off compensation payments to families of nearly 55 billion. Additionally, if only 20% of the reported injuries attracted the lowest one-off disability payments, that would add an extra 19.8 billion to the compensation bill. If it were 50%, 40.5 billion, and 80%, 79,2 billion. Even if the conflict ended today, Ukraine could be staring down the barrel of a compensation bill, even on a conservative estimate, of over 130 billion. To put that into context, Ukraine is expected to generate 48.2 billion in tax revenue in 2025.
Some commentators have argued that Ukraine might be incentivized to slow the identification of bodies to delay payments to relatives.
